After a resounding victory in the West Bengal assembly election, West Bengal’s firebrand Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee’s recent visit to New Delhi is seen in the context to reunite the opposition forces of the country for 2024 parliamentary and few assembly elections. Though Banerjee remained non-committal about her national role her comments came to the media gives an inkling of her ambitions. In her incomparable style, Banerjee announced taking the battle to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in a freewheeling interaction with journalists. She said that it will be ‘Modi vs the rest of India’ in 2024 and “if Bengal could do it, so can the rest of India.” Her poll strategist Prashant Kishore prepared the total ground before her arrival to Delhi. Amid uncertain fears, the BJP government has already started playing cards of all colours to stop Mamata. According to the predictions of political analysts, Mamata Banerjee has become the face of anti-BJP by bringing all the opposition parties under one umbrella. If the trend of continuity of unity is maintained, the elections of 2024 may be a litmus test for the strategy of BJP leadership too.
It was clear as daylight that Mamata’s visit to New Delhi was not a mere courtesy call or meeting with the Prime Minister. The meeting with Congress president Sonia Gandhi and other senior Congress leaders, Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal, and a telephonic interaction with Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Lalu Prasad Yadav and Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav among others in outreach to unite opposition parties and bring them on a common platform. In this line a similar exercise was also done in the past too but by then the catalyst was different. It was in the late 1999, after the fall of Atal Behari Vajpayee’s 13-month government, an attempt was being made to form a secular government with Sonia Gandhi in the lead. Harkishan Singh Surjit the then General Secretary of the CPM was the convenor of that movement. He worked continuously almost for a decade to form an anti-BJP alliance. But that attempt failed miserably because of Mulayam Singh Yadav’s political ambition. Yadav did not agree to show generosity to the Congress in forming a government led by Sonia. Inevitably, the Lok Sabha elections and the return of the Vajpayee government after winning the vote. The irony of the India’s political scenario is similar to feed cow and a tiger in a same ghat.
After the defeat of the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo to Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, the anti-BJP camp is excited about a new alliance. The Trinamool leader spoke of the need for unity of opposition at the national level in Delhi. Rahul Gandhi is also active in opposition unity. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections are still three years away. At this point, the bigger question is, will the opposition alliance be formed before the vote? Or after the vote? The bigger question is, will the general public decide that the Modi government should be removed at all? Here is the actual challenge. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is still the darling of the masses but things are not as smooth as they were in his first term. The COVID-19 mismanagement has tarnished his image; the economic hardships have eroded his popularity. Rising fuel prices, unemployment and inflation are hurting the common man and making him jittery. These are the issues that can be taken up by the Opposition, Mamata Banerjee has hinted in Delhi. Although this is not her maiden attempt to unite the opposition. She tried to forge a third front ahead of the 2019 general succeed, so this time Mamata has started early, almost three years before the next Lok Sabha polls.
History says that the coalition government of opposition was first formed in the post-Emergency elections in 1976 and then after the eruption of the Bofors scandal in 1989. The first time the Janata Party-led coalition was against Indira Gandhi and the second time, Vishwanath Pratap Singh’s state front against Rajiv Gandhi’s Congress. Twice the winds of politics were blowing; the fall of the Congress government was inevitable. The people had decided to remove Congress. No one thought about how long the coalition government would last. On the other hand, the UPA alliance was formed after the elections to keep the United Front in 1996 or the BJP out of power in 2004. Although the Congress-led UPA has been in power for ten years, the coalition government of 1979, 1989 or 1996 did not last more than two and a half years. Political commentator Kalyani Shanker in one of her recent article published in a prominent English daily highlighted that one of the biggest challenges before the opposition is to show a united face against the BJP before the 2024 polls.
There are too many regional chieftains claiming to be the face of the opposition. Mamata has to bell the cat once again. She also understands now that without Congress, there can be no opposition front. Arithmetically, it is difficult to form a government. To soften the Congress, she met Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi during this trip. Though Congress is the oldest national party and has ruled the country for long, it presently faces too many problems. They include a leadership crisis and a weakening party organisation. Sonia Gandhi has taken a backseat due to health reasons. In 2004 she went from one party leader to the other and united the heterogeneous opposition block successfully. Her son Rahul Gandhi is still not ready.
The second problem is that the regional satraps are not keen to accept Rahul as their leader. On the other hand even the Congress too is not willing to consider any regional chief as the leader. Some parties like the BJD, Samajwadi Party, and Bahujan Samaj Party are neutral. That is why it is not easy to visualize a united opposition emerging before 2024. The biggest challenge would be to agree on a common minimum programme. An electoral strategy would need seat adjustments. The roles various parties would play during and after the elections would also need to be chalked out. The BJP rode to power in 2019 on Modi’s charisma and a fragmented Opposition. Many parties like the BSP now face an existential crisis and it is “do or die” for them. In fact, the Modi Government itself is pushing these parties to forge an alliance. The Government is not very accommodative of the Opposition-ruled states. It makes no bones about destabilising them. The Shiv Sena and the NCP are desperate to defeat the BJP as they feel it could wipe them off. The Congress has to understand that it needs other Opposition parties to take on the BJP, else it would soon be out of the game. Therefore from that view point Mamata Banerjee has a fair chance to be the leading face to be pitted against Modi in 2024 general election.
